I see from todays news that the MP for Glenrothes passed away after a long illness. I suppose any by election will now be in October, after the conference season. Can the SNP take this seat too, after Glasgow East? I see that the would need a swing of about 14% so in theory should be possible after that 22% swing! The only thing I do hope for is that they manage to hold on to seats at any subsequent General election. To date the record for them to do so, is poor. Maybe circumstances will be different for them this time, as they are in power at Holyrood. Anyone know yet, when Jack O'Connell will be giving up his seat?

The SNP to send another 'message' to Gordon Brown? I'm at the wrong side of the country to know, or pretend to know anything, about the politics of Fife, so I don't know if the SNP can realistically hope to win this seat. Looking at their national performance, I would say yes. Fife however, is Gordon Brown's home area. Is it therefore presumably 'too' safe to lose? I know it is a smaller swing required, but you can't rely on 22% to be an accurate 'average' swing to the SNP.

Firstly, my deepest sympathy to John MacDougall's family and friends. He was by all accounts an extremely popular and diligent man, and that sentiment was echoed from across the political spectrum.

If Labour were at all competent, this seat would be a no-brainer. Mr MacDougall had a 10,664 majority, was popular locally and by all accounts worked hard for his constituency.

However, the same can be said of the late Gwyneth Dunwoody of the Crewe and Nantwich constituency who in life commanded a majority of over 8,000.
New Labour completely misjudged their election strategy, attampting to ridicule the Conservative candidate and in spite of having the daughter of Ms Dunwoody standing as Labour candidate, snatched defeat from the jaws of victory due to negative campaigning and incompetence.

New Labour seem to have a deep vein of negativity running through their core; they just can't help attacking opposition whilst providing no positive policies of their own.

If Labour continue this petulant strategy, I think it very plausible indeed that Gordon Brown may have an SNP MP in the constituency bordering his own.

I think you've hit the nail on the head. I live in this constituency and, it's true, there is strong SNP support here. Personally, I don't think it's strong enough to win an election or by-election to Westminster. John MacDougall was, indeed popular here, but that was more due to his council work than his Parliamentary work. The Parliamentary Labour support goes back a lot longer than John's tenure.

However, that said, the colossal incompetence demonstrated recently could easily lose Labour this seat.

In summary, I don't think the SNP can win this seat, but Labour can, and probably will, give it to them unless there is a dynamic change in the party.

The extent of the alienation of traditional Labour voters from the party has yet to be fully recognised. Blair and Brown abandoned the whole ethos of the movement so that they could appeal to the swing voters of middle England. In the process, they betrayed their core support.

I think that Blair was seen as the prime mover and that once he was gone Brown would return to the old values. Once in No 10, it was quickly made clear that nothing had changed. That precipitated the catastrophic loss of support in the polls.

At the moment, the media are still speculating about a change of leader. But the party is finished, whoever is leader. The entire PLP went along with the whole circus. They voted the way they were told, like sheep. John MacDougall went to the Commons from his sick bed to vote for 42 days detention without trial.

After 11 years in power, who is now reversing the disastrous Thatcherite policy of selling off Council houses? The SNP. They are now the party that represents the people of Scotland.

I didn't realise of course that the SNP did win this first past the post seat of Glenrothes at the Scottish elections year. That itself may be a help. I gather that Henry McLeish may stand for Labour. I cant see that too much past financial irregularities to exploit.

Henry has deffo ruled himself out of the running for this seat. He says he was tempted, but no big gun is going to seriously put their head in the block especially after Glasgow East. I think Margaret Curren has already disappeared into the Bermuda triangle. I am not saying that its a forgone conclusion that the SNP will win the seat, ok they are quite good at by elections. But I still thing there are loads of people out there, who would vote for a roll of loft insulation if it wore a Labour rosette!!

rickyross3359 wrote:
Henry has deffo ruled himself out of the running for this seat. He says he was tempted, but no big gun is going to seriously put their head in the block especially after Glasgow East. I think Margaret Curren has already disappeared into the Bermuda triangle. I am not saying that its a forgone conclusion that the SNP will win the seat, ok they are quite good at by elections. But I still thing there are loads of people out there, who would vote for a roll of loft insulation if it wore a Labour rosette!!


Apparently, even rolls of loft insulation have their limits; looks like Labour will have to make do with a list MSP.

The SNP are certainly the best organised locally. Yesterday their election leaflet arrived.

They were first to deliver on the last round of elections too.

As a resident in this constituency I think the result could go either way. Whichever way it goes it will certainly rattel Labour's cage.

Do those of you who live in the constituency think it will be a straight forward SNP v Labour popularity contest or are there local issues that will be prominent too?

A “poll of polls� carried out this month shows that SNP support has reached a record high of 38 per cent - 11 percentage points ahead of Labour. This would give them a net gain of 32 seats at Westminster.

www.express.co.uk/posts/view/59156/Poll-...ts-32-more-SNP-seats

Jings and help ma boab 32 seats for the SNP at westminster now that would rattle the establishment at the commons not to mention a few heart attacks in the Lords! I wish it would translated to seats at the next election but hopefully even 20 seats would be fantastic! To have a good number in the commons would surely lead to more powers for the Scottish parliament?

Frank Roy MP, the Labour Campaign Manager for the Glenrothes by-election has walked out.

But Labour sources have revealed that Mr Roy told party managers last week that he would not run the campaign, apparently in dismay at the lack of local organisation and support.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/poli...k-Roy-walks-out.html

I suppose the only question now is just how big the SNP's majority is going to be.

I suppose the only question now is just how big the SNP's majority is going to be.
Do not count your chickens ...